Primary is gone, but NH won’t be forgotten

The first-in-the-nation primary campaigns are gone, but New Hampshire won’t be forgotten entirely as the presidential primary circus has moved on to South Carolina, Florida and beyond.

That’s because the Granite State will be an important swing state in the upcoming general election.

For Democrats, 2012 is an opportunity to a) repeat its selection in 2008 of a Democratic presidential candidate over a Republican (Barack Obama over John McCain), and b) wrestle political control away from the GOP which has majorities not only in the New Hampshire House and Senate but among the congressional delegation as well.

For Republicans, 2012 is an opportunity to maintain the momentum of 2010 when it slaughtered Democratic incumbents in local and statewide races up and down the ballot.

President Obama’s campaign will want to win New Hampshire in the same manner he won the state in 2008, no matter who the 2012 nominee might be. And -- at this stage -- that appears very much up in the air.

Obama, remember, defeated McCain, the senator from Arizona, 54 percent to 45 percent.

In fact, New Hampshire since 1992 has leaned more toward Democratic candidates for president than Republicans:

2004 - Democrat John Kerry 50 percent, Republican incumbent George Bush 49 percent;

2000 - Democrat Al Gore 47 percent, Republican George Bush 48 percent;

1996 - Democratic incumbent Bill Clinton 50 percent, Republican Bob Dole 40 percent;

1992 - Democrat Bill Clinton 49 percent, Republican incumbent George H.W. Bush 38 percent.

Here are a few predictions of what we’ll see in the months ahead:

If not the occasional visit by Obama and the Republican nominee themselves, a string of visits from their surrogates, such as: Vice President Joe Biden, the Republican vice presidential candidate, the wives of the candidates, allies of the candidates (N.J. Gov. John Christie, for example, if Mitt Romney is the nominee).

We’ll see Democratic surrogates who could very well be the precursors to the 2016 presidential campaign: Newark Mayor Cory Booker (who’s been here already), New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Joe Biden, and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel just to name a few.

We’ll see some nasty advertising from super PACs. There may be a smattering of these ads (like you saw during the primary) for and against the presidential candidates, but the bulk will be aimed at the candidates for the state’s two House seats.

That’s because, part and parcel to the presidential election, are the concurrent House and Senate races in 2012 across the country.

New Hampshire doesn’t have a Senate race this year: Republican Kelly Ayotte was elected to her six-year term in 2010, and Democrat Jeanne Shaheen doesn’t come up for re-election until the off-year election in 2014.

But there is going to be very rough and tumble campaigns for the two House seats held by Republican Frank Guinta in the 1st Congressional District and Republican Charlie Bass in the 2nd CD.

Bass can expect a likely rematch from Demorat Ann McClane Kuster, who lost to Bass in 2010. If indeed she doesn’t have a primary opponent, Kuster will have a well organized, well funded campaign to match up against Bass’s incumbency.

Guinta’s opponent will likely be determined first by a Democratic primary. Carol Shea-Porter, the Democratic incumbent defeated by Guinta as part of the 2010 slaughter, wants another crack at her old seat. But Democrats are likely to make sure there’s a primary race in this one.

And it’ll all revolve around the presidential race, which will have top billing and which could have a trickle down effect through the ballot.