Romney’s turn to surge

You get the impression, if you saw the crowds at the Mitt Romney campaign events in Portsmouth and Londonderry this week, that it’s the former Massachusetts governor who’s surging in the two weeks leading up to the Jan. 10 presidential primary.

Forget Newt Gingrich. Forget Ron Paul. Forget Jon Huntsman and the rest of the GOP presidential contenders.

Despite some surges by each of them, Romney is the Republican with the greatest amount of mojo in the Granite State right now.

People are eager to see him. They’re willing to crowd into small spaces and stand for long periods waiting to hear him speak.

The latest poll of likely voters in the New Hampshire primary -- this one done by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center for the Boston Globe -- shows Romney still has a commanding double-digit lead as as count down to the final days before the first-in-the-nation primary.

What the poll shows is that Romney has continued to weather each of the challenges thrown at him by Gingrich, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, and Michele Bachmann.

The fact that Texas Congressman Paul is at 17 percent in this poll - a rise of 3 points, which puts him tied with Gingrich -- is interesting but not conclusive that he represents any kind of threat to Romney’s primacy in New Hampshire.

Folks seem to be coming around to Romney that he -- more than any of the others -- is a Steady Eddy. He doesn’t blow hot or cold; he doesn’t swing wildly one way or the other.

Gingrich saw a rise in his fortune until people remember how, as speaker of the U.S. House, just how polarizing he can be.

Paul has great appeal among his zealots, but most Republicans won’t want a strict isolationist carrying the GOP banner against President Barack Obama.

Perry will get killed in New Hampshire, as he’s likely to get killed in Iowa next Tuesday. It could be happy trails to him.

Bachmann too could be history. She desperately needs a good Iowa showing to stay relevant, because she too is likely to get hammered here.

Huntsman will do pretty well here. His exclusive attention to the state has paid off, but it’ll be a blip. He been so New Hampshire-centric it’s doubtful he’s got the organization the national campaign that’s necessary to do well in South Carolina, Florida and in the Super Tuesday states.

No, this is Romney’s surge.

He’ll do well in Iowa, this in a state that wasn’t all that important to him in the heat of summer. But as others self-combusted with poor performances and misstatements, Romney saw an opportunity and focused some time and treasure there starting in the early fall.

He’ll meet expectations in New Hampshire and likely beat his opponents by the kind of double-digit margin he’s had throughout the primary season.